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Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Tim Lincecum San Francisco Giants
No. 11 on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list for 2007, no. 10 on John Sickels'.

Another win for Sickels.

Well, all right, a tie. So let's go to the video tapes.

BA: "Size doesn't matter. His fastball-curveball combo prompts comparisons to Bob Feller and Sandy Koufax."

JS: "University of Washington ace made a rapid adjustment to pro ball. Combines superb stuff with an unorthodox delivery to confuse hitters."

I still give the nod to Sickels. Among other things, for both Koufax and Feller, size mattered a lot (Koufax wasn't huge but his strength was legendary). Ron Guidry would have been a better comparison.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 19 '07
Wally Moon Los Angeles Dodgers
As I said somewhere else, I am merrily throwing my two cents in on this historically stuff without the benefit of Total Baseball at my side. Have to confess that I totally forgot the NL expansion took place the year after Maris hit 61 home runs.

Anyway, an understatement to say these numbers are surprising. With Maris, Cash and Gentile alone, you'd think the AL SA (which is what you are showing, right?) would have dropped more than 12 points in 1962. And the NL only went up one point?

The big drop in both leagues in 1963 is explained, if memory serves, by the raising of the pitcher's mound.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 19 '07
Baseball America had him ranked no. 26 on its list of Top 100 Prospects. John Sickels list had him no. 11.

Chalk one up for Sickels.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 19 '07
Joba Chamberlain Cleveland Guardians
I just put Joba, like Fausto, on my Watch List. Added my very own User Bid. Which you can't see, Peter, for obvious reasons.

This might be a very popular feature for readers. We'll see.

Next year, we may or may not be able to show the Average User Bid. If we can, we may or may not want to. (Drawback to showing it being, readers may put in completely bogus user bids to create bogus averages.)
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 19 '07
Wally Moon Los Angeles Dodgers
No power spike, just the same old guy he was the two years before, but with .030 extra points of BA. I hadn't looked at league differences, but they are surprising:

NL AL
1960 .388 .388
1961 .405 .395
1962 .393 .394
1963 .365 .380

The AL expanded in 1961, the NL in 1962. I don't know how they handled the expansion drafts, but it bears looking into.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 19 '07
Whitey Ford New York Yankees
I entered P-900, thinking that might bring up Whitey's pitching stats. Maybe, in addition to a check for hitter, there should be a check for pitcher. One of those either/or deals.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 19 '07
Wally Moon Los Angeles Dodgers
Naturally, after reading your Jim Gentile comment, Peter, I called up Wally Moon.

Kind of surprising, isn't it?
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 19 '07
Notice how much our 5x5 guy (Mike Fenger) is impressed by Bannister's K/IP. And in 5x5, I'd happily take him at $2: not many relievers get 77 SO.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 19 '07
Don Drysdale Los Angeles Dodgers
Yes! With nine.

That plunk is somewhat famous, I think, and is one point of evidence that baseball records are perhaps just a little less than sacred.

Even so the story is awfully good.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 19 '07
Joba Chamberlain Cleveland Guardians
Maybe, but that seems pessimistic. If enough come the serious are the ones who will jump through the hoop to do the difficult. Especially if we can give them some ego gratification if they get it right.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 19 '07
I was really just referring to one of Alex's earlier comments -- that we'd be reading the comments here, and explaining any changes of mind we had, whether due to changed circumstances or arguments here.

I suppose that an "early read" on actual prices would be interesting, but it's hard to see (1) many people putting full lists up, or even (2) enough people taking it seriously to put up useful numbers.
mike fenger mike
Dec 19 '07
Don Drysdale Los Angeles Dodgers
Wes Farrell (in the 30s).

As a Giants fan in the 60s, I loved it when the Giants beat him. My memory is that McCovey beat him like a drum. The Giants couldn't beat Koufax, but the next night would make up for it. At least in my memory. His consecutive scoreless-inning streak was tainted, too; he plunked Dick Dietz with the bases loaded, but it was called a strike because the umpire said Dietz didn't try to avoid it. Interesting, since I seem to remember it hitting him in the ribs . . .
mike fenger mike
Dec 19 '07
In 1965 he hit the second most homers by a pitcher ever (tied with some other guys). Only one guy hit the most, and it wasn't eight. Who?
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 19 '07
Whitey Ford New York Yankees
No power?
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 19 '07
Jim Gentile Cleveland Guardians
The answer is Wrigley Field in Los Angeles, the most disruptive bandbox in baseball history, which was a major league stadium for just one year. 1961. 246 homers were hit there that year, a record that stood for 30 years according to Wikipedia.

I haven't been able to figure out which park got the record then, or has it now.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 19 '07
Joba Chamberlain Cleveland Guardians
I agree with you Alex about community trickery. Polls are bogus, though I often click to see what moronic opinion the majority holds. But I think when we post prices there is an alternative version that is the collective thought of the readers.

I don't know of any site that lets readers collaborate on prices or projections (some people live for projections, while others disregard them and go for prices). This "tool," let's call it, could serve as a corrective, especially if we decide that we shouldn't update the posted bid prices after Feb 15. But also if we do.

I know plenty of people who don't think expert opinions are much use, even if they trust the expert, because they want to know how the polloi is going to act on draft day. This could be a tool to show them.

Of course, I'm spitballing. It could be really hard to implement, which is why no one has done it. But it seems to me these are the sorts of features for next year that can take this site from "interesting and fun" to "essential."
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 19 '07
Boy, I am very much in the minority here. As is well known, I much prefer year-before stats to projections and I really don't like the polls you see at other sites (How Much Time Should Barry Serve In Jail? 1 month, 1 year, 10 years, the rest of his life). Nevertheless, which are the sites that you think have the best interactive, community feel, Mike? I should check them out.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 18 '07
Jim Gentile Cleveland Guardians
If expansion is the full explanation for the hitting spike in 1961, and I think it was (I don't seriously believe there was a one-year epidemic of performance-enhancing substances), it's not completely clear to me why pitchers were able to reassert themselves so forcefully the following year. Off the top of my head (I am writing without my trusty Total Baseball at my side), it took several years for the pitching brigade to be replenished after later expansions.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 18 '07
Norm Cash Detroit Tigers
Roger Maris wasn't the only one who feasted on expansion in 1961.

It never even occurred to anyone at the time that these folks might have been feasting on something else.

And they probably weren't, since for so many of these players (Jim Gentile also comes to mind), it proved to be a one-year feast.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 18 '07
I like him. I think he's successful so far because he knows what he's doing and trusts his stuff. But that stuff is hittable when things don't go right. He's going to have years where he's as bad as he was last September for two or three months, and have no value--or worse. It's not a big leap from $7 to $10, which may be why I put him at $5 in the Guide.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 18 '07

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