Recent Comments

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Nick Swisher Atlanta Braves
Guillen has named him the Sox leadoff hitter opening day.

OBP aside, Swisher a leadoff hitter?


Not sure if this will be a permanent move, but Swisher owners are not thrilled.

Keith Cromer Slyke
Mar 30 '08
Chad Cordero Toronto Blue Jays
My money is on Rauch.

Keith Cromer Slyke
Mar 30 '08
He may get traded, anyone know who the closer in waiting for the Nationals. I would think Ayala but he's coming off injury.
Joe Lannon JEL
Mar 30 '08
Corey Patterson New York Mets
Baker announced today he would start in CF opening day.

He may still sit against lefties, but he is looking like a good bet to steal 30 bases and will hit his share of HR's in that park.

I will be targeting him in my NL 4x4 at Alex's price.


Keith Cromer Slyke
Mar 30 '08
Jose Castillo Houston Astros
The Giants announced today he will play third on Opening Day.

Man, the Giants are a really, really bad team this year.


Keith Cromer Slyke
Mar 30 '08
Carlos Zambrano Florida Marlins
First of all, Peter, sorry for the incorrect attribution on the projections. Second, Adam Smith and the rest of us masochists love this stuff.
T.J. Rohr TJRohr
Mar 30 '08
Eugenio Velez Los Angeles Dodgers
2 more steals today (16).

Frandsen's out for the year and the Giants are getting fed up with Durham's attitude.

He is now looking like he might get enough AB's to be a fantasy factor this year.

Keith Cromer Slyke
Mar 30 '08
Carlos Pena Texas Rangers
I was one of those guys patting Mike on the back.

He also got a first round pick in our ML draft in the deal.

Mike likes McGowan more than I, and Cust is not one of my favorites.

C. Pena at $10 is big.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Mar 29 '08
Eric Hinske Arizona Diamondbacks
By the way, today Maddon announced his starting line-up for Monday's opener vs. the O's:

2B Akinori Iwamura
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
CF B.J. Upton
DH Cliff Floyd
3B Willy Aybar
RF Eric Hinske
C Dioner Navarro
SS Jason Bartlett

He gets the nod over Gomes against the righty.

From trash heap to opening day starter.

Hey, it's Hinske's world, we're all just living in it.

Keith Cromer Slyke
Mar 29 '08
Before Slyke beats me to it, I'll let everyone know that he put his money where his mouth is, and kept Hinske at $2.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 29 '08
Carlos Pena Texas Rangers
I just traded McGowan ($10) and Cust ($10) for this Pena ($10) and T. Pena ($1). Two of my league-mates are patting me on the back like I made the heist of the century, but I've already got sellers remorse...I love McGowan.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 29 '08
Ervin Santana Kansas City Royals
I have more respect for Alex than I do for anyone who has played or written about this game...

...but can't bring myself to keep Santana at $10.

Which is fine, Alex himself would tell you. The idea of the bid limits is to have them as jumping off points, and use them as a counterbalance against your own bid limits and opinions.

Alex's high regard sure made me think about it, though.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 29 '08
Skip Schumaker San Diego Padres
The news today is that Tony picked Skip to be his leadoff hitter. That has to be worth a 5x5 dollar, though it's hard to see it lasting.
mike fenger mike
Mar 29 '08
An exercise that would obviously be more fun with pitchers.

You wrote that about Tim Wakefield in your 1994 book.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 29 '08
Francisco Liriano Toronto Blue Jays
Can't bid on players like this in my league (and many others). You can keep him at his price (which is $14 in my league) or throw him back. Fortunately, the team in my league that has him also has the #1 pick, so I'm sure he'll throw him back and use the pick to take him back.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 29 '08
Adrian Beltre Texas Rangers
I just put a long post over at Carlos Zambrano about projections, and this seems like a good place to talk about the difference between bid prices in mixed and single leagues.

There are a few indications that Beltre's wrist is bothering him, but as MikeG said, he hit a homer against the Cubs and looked fine doing it. But he's also been resting, I believe, and it's early in the long grind of the season. So one shot doesn't rule out a possible problem.

In a mixed league I take that possibility more seriously. Even though it's easier to find a useful replacement in mixed, it's more important to get extraordinary production from the players you pay for. So a guy like Beltre, who has some power and runs and is in the middle of the lineup is a big plus, but sours quickly if there's a chance he's hurt.

In an AL only league, Beltre becomes a risky play with potentially catastrophic consequences, but since there is no other place to put your money (and the evidence of his injury isn't conclusive) and you don't want to gift an opponent with a bargain, I think you have to assume his price isn't going to fall much.

Teams looking for low-risk players will avoid him, but teams willing to take on risk to overcome their bad freeze list, let's say, will bid him up.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 29 '08
Carlos Zambrano Florida Marlins
Whoa, wait a minute. I said the formula doesn't work exactly right for the projections. Really, that's what I said.

Alex's formulas work exactly the same no matter what the dataset is. The problem is in the nature of projections. I didn't say that, though that's what I was thinking.

When doing projections you have to make certain assumptions about the dataset you're creating. For instance, does it make sense to project players with 700 plate appearances? Every after the fact analysis of historical data will tell you that guys who have 700 plate appearances one year will not have 700 plate appearances, on average, the next.

In fact, the number of plate appearances by all full time players will decline by about 10 percent based on all regular players from one year to the next. Why? Because of injuries.

Similarly, if you track the playing time on average of young guys with 100-300 at bats from one year to the next, those will increase, while old guys in that range will decrease.

The problem is that if you average the increases and decreases across the dataset it just makes everyone a little more mediocre and actually obscures what most individuals will do.

I used to make my projections so that the at bats, innings pitched and other stats added up, but I got so many complaints I reconsidered. The problem was that while the projections as a whole were a little more accurate (and so better predicted what players would do), they didn't look like a set of year end stats. No high batting averages, no big home run totals, etc.

I still don't pump up the number of stats as outliers in most cases, but they're now shown in the context of each genuine player's real projected playing time, not tamped down 10 percent across the board to account for the at bats (or innings pitched) that will be lost to random injury.

What does this have to do with Zambrano? I also take the liberty to boost and penalize some players about whom I have hunches or whose information I read as strongly suggestive or a breakout or a breakdown. Zambrano takes the penalty. It looks to me like he's trending away from his average stats.

If you want to know where my thinking deviates most from the common wisdom of Alex and Mike, look at the spread between the Patton$ and the Bid Prices. As to whether I should follow my predictions or my read on what the room is going to be saying about a player, well, that's a good topic for another time.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 29 '08
C.J. Wilson Los Angeles Angels
I have him at $11 in the current software, indicating skepticism has subsided, yet it still exists.

It's impossible to keep the bid prices up to date here. Try as we might, we don't catch everything in each software update. It's fair to say, though, that for $30 we try with all our might.
Alex Patton Alex
Mar 29 '08
Skip Schumaker San Diego Padres
A long time ago I proposed being allowed to make negative bids for players. Hitters as well as pitchers. So if you got Schumaker for ($1) as your first acquisiton, you'd have $261 left tto spend.

The catch would be you couln't drop him from your roster.
Alex Patton Alex
Mar 29 '08
Carlos Zambrano Florida Marlins
Whoa. Wait a minute. Someone's saying my formulas are inflated??

I beg your pardon, Peter, but my formulas are exactly, exquisitely -- masochists would say exquisitely painfully - accurate.

Retrospectively. When I know what a player has actually done.

Zambrano earned $18 last year in standard 4x4 leagues. And that's a fact. He happens to have also earned $18 in 5x5 leagues, and that's another fact.

I mean these are as close as you can get to facts in the pricing game.

Peter might disagree with me that Zambrano earned $18 last year. But that's just his opinion.

In any event, the point for buyers of the software to understand is that they are getting Peter's projections and my pricing formulas.

The pricing formulas for 2008 are the same as for 2007. I make no assumptions that the stats of the average player will change significantly this coming season. If they do, if they change even slightly, the restrospective formulas in next year's Evaluator will reflect that.

Tp put it simply, if Peter's projection for Zambrano is accurate and the league ERA and WHIP next year are the same, he will earn $8.

My 4x4 bid, Mike's 5x5 bid, and frankly Peter's mixed-league bid question the accuracy of the projection.

Normally the bid is lower than the projected value of the stats. Because projections are predictions and bids are bets. Zambrano's a rare case where the bets far exceed the prediction, which is interesting. That's why TJ brought him up.

In the pitcher listing in the software there are four different relevant numbers for Zambrano. In addition to what AP, MF and PK think you should bet on him, depending on the format, there's a number in the Lg1 column that tells you what an actual, non-freeze-list league paid for him this spring. In the LABR 5x5 auction at the beginning of March, he cost $17.

I see I still have him at $24 in the current software. I'm not happy about that. In the final update, next Wednesday, I'll have him at the $21 you see here, or maybe even lower. He's a good place to borrow money from if I want to raise the bid for another pitcher.

The key column in the software is the one under Bid. It's totally blank. That's your column. The best way to use the software is to look at all the other choices of bid values, including Lg1, pick out the one you like best as your starting point, transfer all those values over to the bid column with a single command, enter your league's freeze prices in place of bids, check the totals to see how much money is now not accounted for, raise the bids for the available players that you especially want until all money is accounted for, sort hitters by position and bid, sort pitchers just by bid, print up lists, and go into your auction and kick butt.



Alex Patton Alex
Mar 29 '08

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