Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Many a FAAB piggy bank was shattered for this guy when he came to the AL, and for a while it looked like the Braves had once again sold high with one of their less than sterling prospects. But in the end, seven home runs for mere FAAB money, from a catcher, was nothing to cry about.

He's a prospect and this spring he's going to be getting an impressive amount of real money, salary-cap money, in auctions.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 17 '08
C.C. Sabathia New York Yankees
Doc Gooden had 132 wins through his age 26 season. 132!!! without a losing record in any single season. He didn't even reach 200 wins. By age 24 he had become a league average pitcher in terms of ERA. Between the drugs and all of those innings at a young age his body just couldn't handle it. C.C.'s body seems a little better suited to the innings, but it is important to note that he hardly ever exceeded 30 starts and 200 IP. He is prone to abdominal strains. I think he missed his first few starts in 2005 and 2006 with those injuries.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 17 '08
You know what? This is a pretty great career we're looking at. How many pitchers have won 100 games by the age 27? How many who have won 100 at any age have never had a losing record?
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 17 '08
Dustin Pedroia Boston Red Sox
Lenny's podcast today was devoted to a more measured analysis of the draft. He didn't even mention Pedroia and picked my team to finish second, based on the pitching (Santana, Halladay, Wang, Blanton, Penny, Wagner, Isringhausen, B Wilson, flyer on Andrew Miller) but with nice words about the power-speed balance and batting average. So I no longer feel like I have a new one, and Alex explains what I like about Pedroia.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 17 '08
Is it a good thing or a bad thing that Dustin Pedroia is the worst-looking hitter in the major leagues? (Pitchers aren't hitters.) Swings from the heels on every pitch. At anything. And it doesn't matter: he gets results, including walks.

Among AL second basemen, only Placido Polanco and Robinson Cano ranked higher in OPS. Among hitter with at least 502 plate appearances, no one was better than Pedroia at wailing at pitches outside the strike zone (.664 BPS, 2 points higher than Vlad's).

I mean, he seems like a smart player. If he can learn to lay off bad pitches in general -- as he clearly does with two strikes -- and not take quite such a ferocious, head-snapping cut at the ball, he could hit .350.

And Lenny and I will eat seven kinds of crow.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 17 '08
Troy Percival Tampa Bay Rays
I tend to agree. The bid that I just entered is a marker until that happens.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 17 '08
Billy Butler Oakland Athletics
I was expecting a little more power from Butler in his 300+ AB's in KC last year, but overall, you have to be excited about his potential. This kid can flat out rake, and should push 20/85/.290 numbers this year. What hurts his value is that he qualifies as DH-only in many leagues. That being said, I would still bump up his 4x4 bid a couple bucks to $16-$17. I don't think he will go lower than that in most leagues.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 16 '08
Troy Percival Tampa Bay Rays
Very strong possibility that the Rays move Reyes into a setup role and go with Percival as their closer in 2008. His 2-year deal includes incentives for games finished, which leads many to believe he will be given every opportunity by Maddon to close. Great numbers last year and the strong possibility of closing will up his bid. If he is named the closer to start the season, I would bump that bid up to $18-$20.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 16 '08
Erick Aybar Minnesota Twins
He's having a bad winter, too, in the DR, and he's got Maicer Izturis behind him (next to him?), as well as Wood. The odds of him being the full time SS this year are way small.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 16 '08
Doug Glanville Philadelphia Phillies
Wow, nice writing.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 16 '08
Excerpts from "In Baseball, Fear Bats at the Top of the Order," by Glanville, in the Op-Ed section of today's Times:

...Yes, baseball players are afraid. Not just on opening day and not just because of the 400-page Mitchell report and not just because of a Congressional hearing on performance-enhancing drugs in baseball — like the one that took place Tuesday — but because they always have been afraid. A player’s career is always a blink in a stare. I retired at the ripe old age of 34 following a season of sunflower seeds and only 162 at-bats. I had been a starter the year before. In this game, change happens fast.

Human nature wants to put the brakes on that rate of change. While your clock is ticking, faster, stronger and younger players are setting up their lockers next to yours.. In 1998, I was the new kid in Philadelphia, battling Lenny Dysktra for the center field job. Five years later, I was mentoring another new kid, Marlon Byrd, so he could replace me. Faced with that rate of career atrophy, players are capable of rash, self-serving and often irresponsible decisions...

There is a tipping point in a player’s career where he goes from chasing the dream to running from a nightmare. At that point, ambition is replaced with anxiety, passion is replaced with survival. It is a downhill run and it spares no one.

For me, it started with a pop in 2003, while I was running out a routine ground ball in Texas. A torn tendon, two months of rehab...

All of a sudden, I felt old. It was the moment when a player is faced with the choice between aging naturally or aging artificially. I chose door number one, and two years later it was Triple-A or bust. Those who chose door number two ... well, you know the rest...
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 16 '08
I never want to put real money down on a guy who has had one good year, but then I almost never get guys like Shields. Sometimes that's good, but sometimes not. I do think he's the real deal, and I'm sure $14 (or the $13 I put on him in the Guide) isn't going to get him.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 16 '08
Scott Rolen Cincinnati Reds
All the evidence is that the AL is stronger than the NL, and they did score 13.3 percent more runs in interleague games last year. Since that's a small percentage of the total stats generated in a year, such a small difference doesn't have a big effect on the value of players in mixed leagues, who generally play in their own context (in which, as Alex notes, they're equal).

It does have an effect for a player switching leagues, though the difference is certainly smaller than our margin of error predicting. Still, it's definitely a reason to hold back a bit on the risky Rolen and the much less risky Miguel Cabrera.

Just don't be surprised if both play huge. A 13 percent edge isn't destiny.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 16 '08
My presumption is that AL hitters and AL pitchers are both better than their NL counterparts. In interleague games the AL outscored the NL by well over 100 runs. I think it was closer to 200 runs. So, while the average NL hitter put up similar stats, it was against lower quality pitching. Without the context of interleague play, the leagues would look equivalent based upon position player stats, but that proved to be untrue when the went head-to-head.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 16 '08
The average NL hitter hitter was almost a clone of the average AL hitter last year. That is, if you take the weak efforts of pitchers at the plate out of the league totals in each league, the hitting contexts were almost identical. Scott Rolen would have been worth $10 in the AL as well.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 15 '08
Franklin Gutierrez Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting RF for the Indians in 2008. Nice combination of power and speed, and 15/15 is a possibility. He is a bit of a free-swinger, but I like Gutierrez this year and long term. Wedge loves his defense, so he will play almost every day. I would have a max 4x4 bid of $15.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 15 '08
Love this guy. I owned him last year and watched many of his starts. His changeup is his bread and butter, and it's extremely difficult to hit. There is a lot to like about that 5:1 K/BB ratio. He does give up his share of HR's, but you will see that with control pitchers. He reminds me a lot of Haren, and I expect him to put up similar stats in '08. I would bump up his 5x5 and 4x4 bids...I would go as high as $20.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 15 '08
Scott Rolen Cincinnati Reds
Bear in mind that the AL is a much tougher league. Even if healthy, his relative value should be lower, had he produced the same numbers in the NL.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 15 '08
A much better player than Troy Glaus, for whom he was dealt, but with a discouraging injury history and a feud with his manager the deal is high risk for both sides. Rolen's defense and bat could make the Blue Jays a much better team, or he could hobble through the year. One hopes spring training helps us tell which Rolen the Jays got.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 15 '08
Troy Glaus Atlanta Braves
Reading Will Carrol's take on why the various training departments of the Blue Jays and Cardinals thought they might be able to squeeze something extra out of the injury-prone guy they didn't have reeked of desperation. Glaus is a fine power-hitter when healthy, but his health can't be assumed and he's a Cardinal because Tony LaRussa didn't get along with the more talented but equally injury-prone Scott Rolen.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 15 '08

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