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He comes in at No. 5 on the Baseball Forecaster's list of Top 75 Impact Prospects for 2022. Here's why.
Josh Jung (3B, TEX) has plus bat-to-ball skills and rarely
chases balls out of the zone—a rare feat for a player with plus
power. Jung was limited to just 304 AB, but he still managed 42
XBH and a .592 SLG%. Jung is an above-average defender at 3B
with a decent range, good hands, and a strong arm. The retooling
Rangers should be able to make room for Jung to take over at
3B in 2022 and his career line of .322/.394/.538 is plenty to get
excited about.
No. 7 on the Baseball Forecaster's list of Top 75 Injury Prospects for 2022.
The profile is less rosy.
Jarren Duran’s (OF, BOS) speed has always carried his profile.
However, a swing transformation allowed for more power to
develop in 2021. In Triple-A, he slashed .258/.357/.516 with 16
HR and 16 SB in 60 games. He struggled mightily in MLB, as
pitchers exposed his hit tool and uber-aggressiveness. It remains
to be seen if Duran makes the proper adjustments to get back to
hard contact.
With a 97.5 mph fastball, you would think Blake Teinen would throw it more often. But he also throws a slider 35% of the time and the rest of his pitches are curveballs.
I'm going to guess that batters really don't like any of his pitches. A lot of pitchers have higher average exit velocities than 83.3. HardHit%, Barrel%, HR/FB -- those are great numbers. He was nasty.
A few years ago I asked Baseball Info Solutions what it would cost to add holds. If it was free, I thought it was worth adding. They said it was.
I seldom even look at holds, but when I see 32? I look twice. Blake Treinen had a fantastic season. Deserved to be on someone's MVP ballot.
Having said that, I have to admit I was alarmed when I read this from Ron Shandler in the Baseball Forecaster.
The structure of MLB rosters has already broken the traditional
14/9 batter/pitcher split in fantasy leagues. That structure hasn’t
reflected reality in awhile. AL/NL-only league free agent batter
pools are usually bereft of talent and pitcher pools are teeming
with middle relievers whose lack of saves suppress their value.
This is an old conversation, but it potentially could get worse.
Leagues should have serious rules discussions this off-season to
address roster structure and perhaps move to Saves-plus-Holds.
Desperate times call for desperate measures, I know... For years Ron has also called for abolishing the wins cat. I think he just likes to upset me.
Going to be interesting to watch early pre-season NL only auctions.
Massive error bars.
Percentiles --
FBv 92
FBs 97
A really nice fastball, an even nicer spin rate; an 88.5 mph slider. You would think that's enough, and it would be if he could throw strikes.
Percentiles --
FBv 96
Nothing wrong with a 97.5 mph fastball, especially when the spin rate was as fast as anyone's. Bard also threw a lot of sliders and the odd changeup. His problem was too many walks.
It wasn't Coors, where he had 3.48 ERA and notched 14 of his saves.
Percentiles --
FBv 99
FBs 98
The second best fastball in the majors last year, when velocity and spin rankings are averaged. Clase was just ahead of him and Clase threw fastballs 70 percent of the time. Doval threw fastballs less than half the time .He must really like his slider (his only other pitch).
If he improves his command, watch out.
Percentilles --
FBv 100
FBs 98
v for velocity, s for spin
His average fastball was the fastest in the majors and its spin rate was the fastest.
Obviously, there are other qualities to consider -- command, release point, how scary the pitcher looks as he's winding up (or is because his command is terrible) -- but on the two most basic measurements, Clase, fiittingly, comes out on top of the fastball rankings.
Here are the top five when FBv and FBs are averaged:
Clase 99.0
Camilo Doval 98.5
Daniel Bard 98.0
Tejay Antone 96.5
Tanner Scott 95.0
His disappointing year at the dish is fully supported by his Statcast scan.
He did not disappoint on the bases, where I'm fairly certain no one projected he'd swipe 21 bags.
And that's why he earns, in 4x4, exactly what the average hitter earns.
Ron Shandler has a chart in the Baseball Forecaster showing how stolen bases just keep getting fewer and further between.
The totals, from 2012 to 2021:
3329, 2693, 2764, 2505, 2537, 2527, 2474, 2280, *2387, 2213
The * is the prorated total for the season we don't like to think about.
I wonder how many the Forecaster projects for 2022?
If you have a full subscription to Baseball HQ you can answer that, because you can download the projections. I just have the Forecaster, which I paid for (because I didn't go to First Pitch Arizona this year, because I have a hard enough time recognizing everybody when they aren't wearing masks), and so I do have the projection for Dylan Moore. P. 123.
He's going to steal 20 bases. That will make him more valuable than the average hitter, even if he's just as bad at the dish, as the trend continues.
A few more examples of how K% (strikeouts/AB) and Whiff% (swings and misses/swings) compare as percentiles at Baseball Savant:
K%, Whiff%
Cronenworth 90, 97
Brandon Nimmo 57, 68
Mitch Haniger 28, 17
Franmil Reyes 3, 6
Joey Gallo 1,1
Another batter who battles with two strikes.
The percentiles (higher is good):
K% 79
Whiff% 26
The other batters being Harper and Guerrero.
Clearly, shortening up and trying to make contact with two strikes leads to a better batting average.
I suppose that's self-evident, but it's a concept that eludes most modern hitters.
An even bigger difference for Vladdy than Bryce when it comes to swinging and missing vs. and swinging and missing with two strikes.
K% 82
Whiff% 28
Whiff% is simply swing and misses divided by swings. Compared to other batters Vladdy does that a lot (more often than 72% of batters that Statcast measures).
He strikes out seldom (only 18% of the batters fan less often).
As I noted on Harper's page, the two rates are more or less the same for most batters.
Some other percentiles:
Judge
K% 25
Whiff% 23
Muncy
K% 57
Whiff% 61
Ohtani
K% 7
Whiff% 3
So the glossary -- on the Savant's page, no less -- is simply wrong?
I thought it had to be.
Homers and strikeouts count in xBA. They take an average of the likelihood balls in play will be hits based on exit velocity and launch angle and direction, home run balls are 100 percent likely to be hits, and then add in actual strikeouts. The idea is to take away real-world fielding results.
Perhaps I should have checked the glossary at Baseball Savant last week before I posted the comment for Bryce Harper (and many others).
Seems we're talking about expected BABIP, which is very different from expected batting average.
On the other hand, was Harper's actual BABIP really 50+ points higher than his expected, based on the Statcast measurements? He hits the ball awfully hard; I'd thnk his expected BABIP, if anything, would be higher than the actual.
I just don't picture him getting too many dink hits.
Here's something curious in the Savant's percentiles for Harper.
K% 43
Whiff% 11
For most batters, these two rate stats are close; not redundant but close (Acuna 34, 30; Soto 90, 80; Freeman 86, 74). Not so with Harper.
Compared to others, he swings and misses at a lot of pitches. But, again compared to others, he doesn't strike out that often.
It would seem he shortens up and battles with two strikes. He still loses the battle often enough (57% of batters whiff less often). But very few batters swing and miss as often as he does (89% at least get a piece of the ball more often).
The results everyone (almost) forgot about. My apologies for the delay. The announcement at Tout Wars is here. There is a link on that page to the spreadsheet that you can find here.
The NL was won by Mark Mason of the Inverted Ws.
AL was won by the Tout Michael Rathburn, who was beaten in Tout AL by champ Jeff Zimmerman, who finished second. Strike Back's Michael Lester wins the civilian prize.
In Mixed Vandelay Industries Keith Johnson beat out a field that included teams from Tout Mixed Auction and Tout Mixed Draft (15).
The Draft teams did worse than the Auction teams in that one. Is that function of the Auction giving more separation? I don't know.
Returning to Burnes (as I look at the percentiles at Baseball Savant), maybe six different percentiles give a pretty good picture of a pitcher's "stuff."
HH% 94
K% 97
x ERA 99
FB Vel 81
FB Spin 100
CB Spin 92
If you add all six together, would it be fair to say whoever had the highest total had the best stuff?
Should there be a seventh percentile, BB%? To show that you have good command of your stuff?
I might have to get out a spreadsheet and look at this.
I should have said, under Bauer, the combined spin total is the highest among starting pitches. Antone ties him.
When you add in his FB Vel percentile, you get a very impressive set of numbers.
FB vel 93
FB Spin 100
CB Spin 97
He throws very hardand puts tremendous spin on both his heater and his yacker.
I wonder why he only throws his 32 heater percent of the time? That seems crazy.
Percentiles --
FB Spin 100
CB Spin 97
The 197 total is the highest in baseball.
His FB Vel percentile, though, is 21, compared to Burnes' 81.
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Congratulations to Genevieve Beacom! The 17-year-old southpaw made her pro debut with the Melbourne Aces last week. The curve ball is already an impressive offering. https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1479845868610244612