The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

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Wil Myers San Diego Padres

I don't know... he hit the ball hard when he hit it (his Hard % was also well above average). It seems to me his BABIP wasn't that lucky -- and of course all those strikeouts weren't unlucky.

Alex Patton Alex
George Springer Houston Astros

With Luhnow out, I now have zero idea what the Astros strategy will be regarding an extension.  But on draft day, he is maybe the one Astro I would not discount in his walk year.

The Astros certainly caved on his arbitration deal.  Maybe that built up some small amount of post-Luhnow goodwill? 

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Daniel Murphy Colorado Rockies

The Nats seem to have a knack for trading or letting these aging guys go at just the right time.  And the Rockies seem to have a knack for acquiring them and overpaying them for their decline.  I am looking at you, Ian Desmond.

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Jose Altuve Houston Astros

Stands to reason by listening for the garbage can banging, he'd know when a fastball was coming and thus know when not to run! 

Matt Roberson Doc

The baffling part about Altuve in  that 2017 season is his road OPS was 1.081 as opposed to .834 at home; but he had 6 more SB at home with the 6 CS split evenly. 

van wilhoite LVW
George Springer Houston Astros

Fair enough. It's good to disagree because that's what these forums are for, the exchange of information. I fully stand by my position though. Springer will NEVER sign back with the Astros. Just like Bryant hates Cubs ownership, Springer hates Astros ownership. Sorry, but you'll be a very sad Astros fan come this time next year.

Matt Roberson Doc
Julio Rodriguez Seattle Mariners

I drafted this kid last year when nobody had ever heard of him and he was unranked. I found him in a few articles and liked what they had to say and decided the potential for a super star was really there. But wow, not even I can believe he's shot up the rankings like he has so fast. If he's as good as everyone is saying now, this might just be the best draft pick I've ever made. 

Matt Roberson Doc
Jose Altuve Houston Astros

I'm discounting the big Astros' hitters (especially Altuve, for the SB issue pointed out by Eugene) a few dollars each. Maybe 10% of normal value. I don't think they're going to get suspended - and I'm sure that would be announced well before I draft - but I think their performance is going to suffer a bit. And I'm not paying full price to find out. 

Guys like Springer, Altuve and Bregman are still very highly-skilled players, but why else would you go to the lengths they supposedly did unless you thought it was going to help your performance? If it wasn't helping, they probably would have stopped after a couple of weeks. 

Scott Shea SJS

You are right about that EF, except the drop happened immediately after the scandal broke, i.e. cause and effect. I am insane and have about a dozen NFBC drafts I've done so this was noticeable. Altuve seems to have been affected more than Bregman or Springer, thus far anyway. Bregman is going in the mid teens after being top ten early on and Springer has gone in the 40s, about 10 slots lower than he started. Maybe all of us NFBC folks are a few French fries short of a happy meal but I'd say a trend is developing.

Wil Myers San Diego Padres

And he'll be cheap because no one expects him to have a .344 BABIP again ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Jose Altuve Houston Astros

Altuve was bound to fall regardless.  His SB total has slipped considerably the past two years after dropping from his peak prior to that.  If he's a 10 SB player, he's going to max out at $30 rather than low-mid $40s as 35+ SB player.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Renato Nunez Baltimore Orioles

His average salary last year was $3 (in the experts' leagues) and was obviously a huge bargain. This year it will be under $10, which will still be a nice bargain.

Alex Patton Alex
Austin Nola Seattle Mariners

His Avg HR Distance was 374 feet (26 feet less than average).

He hit them just far enough just often enough to put him in contention for making the team on Opening Day. 

Alex Patton Alex
Wil Myers San Diego Padres

Above-average Avg Exit Velocity (90.0 mph) and well above average Avg HR Distance (408 feet) that were lost in translation.

He'll be cheap because no one expects him to attempt 23 steals again.

Alex Patton Alex
Jose Altuve Houston Astros

BUY I sez

Daniel Murphy Colorado Rockies

He hit .317 in Coors but in 227 AB managed to hit the ball out of the park only three times. Away from Coors he batted .237.

Alex Patton Alex
Colin Moran Pittsburgh Pirates

The Baseball Forecaster puts it nicely.

"Only draftable skill is BA that won't hurt you."

Alex Patton Alex
Adalberto Mondesi Kansas City Royals

As I think about it, the Davitt Pan deserves a reprint.

DAVITT PAN: Mondesi is an impact player, with something like 20 HR-65 SB per 650 PA in 2018-19 and a .270-ish BA. The issue is
getting to—or even near—650 PA. In eight pro
seasons, Mondesi has 500+ PA once, in 2013 as
a 17-year-old in Single-A. Last year, he had two
significant left-shoulder “subluxations,” which
sounds like a holiday in a two-star resort but
means “partial dislocation.”  
says subluxations tend to repeat, and that
“some people get subluxations over and over
again.” Like a guy who dives horizontally onto
hard-packed basepaths as part of his job?
Yikes. Someone in your league will ignore the
seemingly obvious injury risk, hoping this is the
year Mondesi plays 150 games. It might be. But
it seems unacceptably risky to put a significant
bet on it. 

Alex Patton Alex
Jose Altuve Houston Astros

I was reading somewhere, maybe Twitter, that Bregman dropped from the First Round to #26 in a recent NFBC draft. Unless there are player suspensions forthcoming, and Manfred doesn't seem all that keen in heading in that direction and battling with the PA, would this not be the same initial reaction we saw with both Osuna and Chapman? Last I looked, they were going off-the-board as the third and fourth closer. If the Astro players continue to fall, it creates a buy-low opportunity. Are we passing or taking advantage of this short-term opportunity?

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Adalberto Mondesi Kansas City Royals

Three pans in the Guide. I'm siding with the Wise Guy.

McCAFFREY PICK: Mondesi has established
that his batting average won’t hurt you. If you
disagree, you must be saying that he will strike
out more; what else could it be? I figure he’ll
still strike out a lot, but maybe a little less. I
mean, he can’t become a dumber hitter, right?
More likely he’ll learn to recognize and lay off
more bad pitches - maybe not a lot more, but
with his multiple talents a little will go a long
way. Just make sure his shoulder is all better. 

Alex Patton Alex

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