Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Daric Barton Toronto Blue Jays
All things go right, and he's a shorter John Olerud.
Jurgen Maas Jurgen
Feb 2 '08
Johan Santana Minnesota Twins
$139M later and it's official: he's a Met.

Peter's price is probably still OK, but Mike and Alex will have to bump theirs.
Jurgen Maas Jurgen
Feb 2 '08
Coco Crisp Oakland Athletics
I doubt it'll take half that much to get him if he's still a Red Sox. Does that bid assume he's playing behind Jacoby?
Jurgen Maas Jurgen
Feb 2 '08
Less than Bruce, but not by much.
Jurgen Maas Jurgen
Feb 2 '08
Aubrey Huff San Francisco Giants
Two in a row (see Posada) where I am in complete agreement with MikeG. It's not uncommon for hitters to peak at age 26. Twenty-seven is the average peak for hitters. And a slow steady decline is more or less the opposite of one might expect from someone who stops taking a performance enhancing drug. While it might have some lingering effects, the gains decrease quickly (see former professional wrestlers and NFL linemen/linebackers from the 80s).

Garrett Anderson had an established level of performance (let's call it level A), then jumped to level B when steroids reportedly became rampant. When the testing went into place he went back to and has stayed at level A ever since. I'd say he's much more likely than Huff to have taken anything based upon his odd career plot.

Huff is a normal aging player going through a slow steady decline.

Either way, there was no rule against steroids when they were taken by most of the players who did take them and there's no real evidence that human growth hormone does anything to enhance performance, other than make people look younger. I see the whole thing as another way that Selig takes a shot at the players rather than growing the game, which he has done a surprisingly good job at with MLB media in recent years.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 1 '08
Franklin Gutierrez Los Angeles Dodgers
My bid's $15, too, as I think Gutierrez has the job going into Spring Training and should keep it all season. His power has improved every year as his offense has developed, so looking at his minor league SLG percentages and saying last year was a fluke is worthless. Gutierrez looks like a player to me.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '08
Rocco Baldelli Tampa Bay Rays
If you want him, you're probably going to have to go to around $13-15. The Patton $ production/per AB is incredible, and someone's going to take the chance that Baldelli is primed to get 500 AB and put up a $25 season.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '08
Aubrey Huff San Francisco Giants
In the 1989 cult movie "How to Get Ahead in Advertising", two businessmen and a priest are talking on a train. One of the businessmen is reading a newspaper, and reads about a drug bust. He says "the police also found a bag containing 15 ounces of cannibus resin. The bag may also have contained a small quantity of heroin."

The other businessman points out that the bag also could have contained "a porkpie" or "a turnip", as opposed to heroin. The first businessman and the priest dismiss this as nonsense. If the article says that the bag may have contained heroin, then it must have contained heroin.

This steroids controversy reminds me of th3 bag in that movie. Aubrey Huff may have done steroids. But he might have also stopped lifting weights. He might have changed something in his approach that has changed him for the worse as a hitter. Or he might simply have gotten lucky in 2002-2003.

We don't know. And we'll never know.

Be wary of claims that so-and-so took steroids. He might have. But I suspect there are more porkpies and turnips in this particular bag than not.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '08
Jorge Posada New York Yankees
I absolutely agree with MikeG on this one. Starting catchers are so scarce and good catchers are so few that you need two starting catchers, at least one good one, in order to have a competitive offense in RBI and Runs. (I always think 5x5.) Have two $1 catchers puts you far too behind in RBI and Runs to make up the difference elsewhere. You can take a risk on one of the young guys, but with out a VMart, Mauer, Posada, or even Varitek, Pudge, Pierzynski, or Johjima that you can bank on, you're already behind the 8-ball. Plus, there are so many owners who discount catchers due to the injury risk that you can very frequently get them below your bid price even if you plan to go slighly above your calculated value.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 1 '08
So how much do we value him if he is the starting CF in Balto?
Robert Holt rhbalto55
Feb 1 '08
Just curious Slyke, what do you think the bid price for Salty should be? If $15 is realistic for Posada, as you said in his comment, I'm assuming you're setting the bar for Salty - a young, raw player with terrible strike zone judgment who the argument could be made for starting him at Triple-A in 2008 - at about $6. Right?
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '08
Jorge Posada New York Yankees
Catcher is a different animal than other positions, Slyke. In an 12 team A.L.-only league, you're guaranteed to have 10 second-string catchers on active Roto rosters. That's 42% of the catching universe that won't be everyday players. Compare that to 22% of the middle infield and corner infield universes and 30% of the outfield universe. Then think about the guys who are starters who aren't very productive, such as John Buck and Dioner Navarro. Then think about the young guys like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Mike Napoli, and Kurt Suzuki, who might be productive this year but haven't done anything in the majors yet. I agree that Posada won't hit .338; that wasn't where I was going with this. But a starting catcher who will hit 20 HR, drive in 80, and not hurt your BA, is a guy you should bid on anticipating that you may take a slight loss.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '08
Josh Fields Los Angeles Dodgers
My bid's currently sitting at $15. It may or may not go up when Crede's traded in March. The average and K/W obviously concern me, but unlike a lot of young hitters we overpay because the power's "sure to come this year", Fields's power is already here.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '08
Jorge Posada New York Yankees
That .338 BA last year looks like an aberration to me...a 61 point increase over his career BA at 35 was a surprise indeed. I would not expect near that again. His average season over his career is 21/83/.279, which is about a $15-$16 season.

I don't think this bid is pessimistic per se, but rather very realistic for a 36 year old catcher.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Feb 1 '08
I don't think Ryan Garko's going to get that much better. But I do think he'll get a little better, and I'm more partial to Garko's power than Youkilis's ability to draw a walk and hit a double. I'd pay a little more for a guy who would have been in the majors earlier except for the fact that he was blocked.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '08
The Rays have said they plan to move Iwamura to second base in 2008, whether Longoria is ready or not. Had some injury problems, but was pretty disappointing offensively after looking at his numbers in Japan.

I think he could be an interesting player this year. I understand power in Japan does not equate to power in the states, but he was coming off consecutive 44, 30 and 32 HR seasons, so you had to expect more that 7 HR's from him in 2007. Now that he has a year in the U.S. under his belt and is more accustomed to the pitchers here, he should improve upon his numbers this year. It took a year for Matsui to find his power stroke once coming over, and he increased his HR total by 15 in his second year. While I don't expect Iwamura to hit 31 HR's like Matsui did that year, I do expect a nice spike in power in year two.

Look for those HR's to double in 2008, and maybe even exceed that; 15-16 possibly. The RBI's should rise as well. He was not much of base stealer in Japan - 15 SB in 21 attempts was his top year, but when you are hitting 30-40 HR's a year, you are probably not asked to run as much - so not sure if you can expect the double digits SB's again in 2008.

The bid limit is in line, but I think Iwamura could be a surprise and I will be targeting him if he is not kept in my AL 4x4.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Feb 1 '08
Jorge Posada New York Yankees
It's a pessimistic price, but I could see why you're not going to break the bank on Jorge Posada. He enters his Age 36 season, and it always gets dicey for catchers in their late 30s. Still, you might want to move up the price a few ticks. Taking a $3-5 loss on a catcher isn't as important as getting $15-20 worth of stats from a position where offense is always dicey.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 1 '08
Hideki Matsui Oakland Athletics
Throw out the broken wrist season of 2006 and and he has been the model of consistency since coming over from Japan. You can mark him down for 20-25 HR's, 100 RBI and a .285-.300 BA each year.

Oddly has suffered injuries in back-to-back seasons (hammy injury last year in April caused him to miss a couple weeks) after his consectuve games streak ended.

He was streaky last year (huge July where he hit 13 of his 25 HR's - 1.146 OPS) and a poor September hurt his final line.

A $24 bid is solid, and one of the safer options out there.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Feb 1 '08
The bids seem right on. Should be good for at least 20 long flies. You hope he keeps that average north of .250 and if he does, he shouldn't hurt you at these prices.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Feb 1 '08
Ian Kinsler San Diego Padres
Might be a good guy to gamble on, I think, if you miss out on Utley or Cano while the rest of the league overpays for Phillips and Upton.
Jurgen Maas Jurgen
Feb 1 '08

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