Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Rich Garces Boston Red Sox
Alex - How much for El Guapo?
Derek Correale Jobu
Feb 10 '08
Al Reyes Tampa Bay Rays
Well, the difference really is this: Dotel had a $5.5 million player option, plus any unpaid incentives from 2007. Gagne had a $6 million one year contract, and Texas wasn't going to get squat for him at the end of the season. Reyes, on the other hand, pitched adequately for the Rays, and with a $2.3 bonus, why not? Would you rather they paid $5-6 million for an old washed up reliever?
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 10 '08
Carl Pavano Minnesota Twins
2004 seems so long ago. Wait, it was.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 10 '08
Started 2 games in 2007. Yes, one of those games was Opening Day. ("Oy vey")
Brian Boyaji EL-NINO
Feb 10 '08
David Wright New York Mets
Alex, the problem is that 20 years ago you taught everyone how to calculate prices. Of course those were based upon single league, deep drafts. When softer mixed leagues started popping up, those who became the touts in those leagues began from your theories. The prices are linear. With better players available, the top players are worth less relative to the others. So, the prices have to go down.

What this doesn't account for, and what you've been pointing out is that replacement level is so much higher. It means that players must be priced, rather than based upon the stats they create, but the stats they create relative to a team of the best player not drafted. In a 12 team AL league the best player not drafted puts up close to no stats. In a 10 team, 12 team, and even in a 15 team mixed league the best player not drafted is a full-time player, who is generally considered very good. He's a valuable major leaguer, not a fringe bench player.

You probably shouldn't clue in your competition, if you want to keep winning the supertouts, XBL or whatever it's called.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 10 '08
Troy Percival Tampa Bay Rays
According to the Tampa Tribune, the torch has been passed from old (Reyes) to older (Percival). Maddon announced it (late November 2007) and even already told Reyes (and Reyes is fine with the new role). Young rotation and old bullpen will make for an interesting 2008 in Tampa (I forsee the shuttle from Durham running non-stop 4 times daily).
Brian Boyaji EL-NINO
Feb 10 '08
Al Reyes Tampa Bay Rays
It was silly for the D-Rays to keep him on July 31st. Even if he didn't net much in return, he was bound to turn back into a pumpkin, and Tampa missed their chance to get something for him. I know his option was cheap for 2008 ($2.3M or so), but let's be real. KC knew what to do (by trading Dotel), as did Texas (Gagne), and from what I heard Seattle had an offer on the table. So now in comes Percival. Does Wheeler/Reyes/Percival combo strike fear? We shall see.
Brian Boyaji EL-NINO
Feb 10 '08
David Wright New York Mets
Without inflation, in an NL-only league, I would say the Sportsliners took Wright about as far as they could take him. Whereas people in mixed leagues should go to Rotoman's bid or even further.

I keep pointing this out (see A-Rod and Pujols threads) because it just doesn't seem to be generally understood that mixed leagues are different.

I mean, just for instance, let's flip open the Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Guide 2008 to page 41 (we can admit it, we've started buying magazines; it's that time of year). And what have we got?

Mixed league 5x5 price for David Wright: $32.

NL 4x4 price for David Wright: $37.

Someone really should tell Jeff Erickson that he's got it all wrong.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 9 '08
Joe Nathan Washington Nationals
Good point...forgot Mike was drafting in 5x5 league...
Keith Cromer Slyke
Feb 9 '08
A near lock for a $40 season in 4x4. An impossibility in 5x5.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 9 '08
Garrett Atkins Pittsburgh Pirates
Atkins wasn't alone in the doubles department. Coors had the highest index (123) for doubles in the National League last year. Also the highest triples index (253) by far.

Coors had the third highest HR index (119), after Citizens Bank (145) and Great American (133).

Coors had the highest batting average index (110).

And for all that, Wrigley Field had the highest runs index (117, a point higher than Coors).

Something to ponder over a beer. Or while chewing gum.

Not both.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 9 '08
Joe Nathan Washington Nationals
Flight risk or not, $22 is a bargain. He may also get traded to an AL team...I would be excited going into the season with Nathan at $22. A near lock for a $40 season if he stays in the AL.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Feb 9 '08
Aramis Ramirez Pittsburgh Pirates
Pencil him in for $25-$30 every year. You have to love consistency. He went for $28 in CBS - a relatively fair price given the lack of third base talent, and only $3 above my price.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 9 '08
Garrett Atkins Pittsburgh Pirates
$31 in CBS. I had him on the sheet for $26; the lack of third basemen just really gives me cause for concern.

Note that, despite the humidor, Atkins is still a Coors producer - his average is 90 points higher and his SLG 60 points higher at home. Oddly, though, those are mostly doubles, since he hit 15 HR on the road.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 9 '08
David Wright New York Mets
Wright went for $43 in the CBS Sportsline NL draft. I almost wish I said $44, because I think I could have driven him up to $7 or $48. Given the lack of third basemen in the NL, his value is considerable, if the steals stay. Since he is only 25, I still see room for improvement in all categories, with perhaps the steals leveling off. Don't think for a minute, however, that Wright hasn't thought about a 40/40 season.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 9 '08
Chipper Jones Atlanta Braves
Jones went for $30 in CBS, about $5 over my price. Jones has continued to produce despite injuries. I am still waiting for the other shoe to drop; 3B is a demanding position, and as Jones ages, the HR have to drop off. On the other hand, his average continues to rise. Perhaps I should have said $31.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 9 '08
Ryan Braun Milwaukee Brewers
$39 in Sportsline, $6 over my price. I see room for improvement, but I also see the potential for regression, particularly in the average category.

John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 9 '08
B.J. Ryan Toronto Blue Jays
If I had to bet now, I'd say he's going to be ready. I'm glad I don't have to, though.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 9 '08
Jeremy Accardo Washington Nationals
I'm reminded that my bid is way too high for Accrado, as things stand now. But, really, there's no point in changing the bid until spring training games get underway. I doubt we'll be seeing Ryan until late in spring training and I won't be too surprised if he hasn't pitched an inning by the end of it.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 9 '08
Joakim Soria Oakland Athletics
Two teams bagged saves.

Fantasy Auctioneer bought eight starters and Hideki Okajima at $3. He's definitely bagging saves.

Crucial Sports bought seven starters, Joaquin Benoit at $4 and Casey Janssen at $2. He's rolling the dice on Benoit at a cheap price.

I did the same thing. I bought Jamie Walker at $4, Fernando Rodney at $1 and seven starters. I'm hoping Walker gets 10-15 saves and for three cheap points in the category.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 9 '08

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