Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Now that we have a Projector, I'm its biggest fan.

Explanation of the Sort numbers:

For hitters, 1-9 is the expected place in the batting lineup.

For pitchers, 1-10 is the expected role, from No. 1 starter to closer. For teams that show several pitchers with the same number, we are indicating that there will be competition for this role (such as the No. 5 starter) or the roles are interchangeable.

For hitters, Sort # 25 indicates the player is expected to make the team as a bench player.

Sort # 30 = hitter or pitcher that is expected to open the season on the DL

Sort # 40 = player on the team's 40-man roster

Sort # 44 = prospect who doesn't need to be protected yet on the 40-man

Sort # 50 = player coming to spring training with this team, usually on a minor league contract

Sort # 99 = last known address; player most likely is in camp with some other team

Sort # 0 = we aren't quite ready to delete this player from the software because it's such a nuisance to add him back in

In future updates, we will be adding prospects that we missed and deleting fringe players who clearly have reached the end of the line.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 17 '09
Brad Ausmus Los Angeles Dodgers
Pancho's so on fire that I can see him burning from my house.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 17 '09
Jeremy Accardo Washington Nationals
Oh dear, am I the only one who still believes in Jeremy Accardo?

I mean, the Jays signed him to a one-year contract for 900 grand in late January -- they must think he's going to be ready right out of the gate. And if he is, they got a bargain.

Then again, maybe Accardo thinks he's not going to be ready. Ever. He couldn't wait to sign.

But the great thing is, these are -- I mean, this is -- this year's bid! The new bids have been posted.


Alex Patton Alex
Feb 17 '09
Can really bring it with the folding chair.
Frank Smith Pancho
Feb 17 '09
Greg Maddux Los Angeles Dodgers
I want him on my fantasy golf team.
Frank Smith Pancho
Feb 17 '09
Carlos Pena Texas Rangers
However, missing the WBC might be a good thing.
Frank Smith Pancho
Feb 17 '09
Brad Ausmus Los Angeles Dodgers
Sure hope Chavez Ravine doesn't hurt his power numbers.
Frank Smith Pancho
Feb 17 '09
Fernando Martinez Houston Astros
f) Hope he can hit from the trainer's room.
Frank Smith Pancho
Feb 17 '09
My bid on Dennis: -$1.
Frank Smith Pancho
Feb 17 '09
David Ortiz Boston Red Sox
As I write, we are still looking at the bids that Peter, Mike and I offered last year as the outer limits of what to spend for Big Papi (for posterity, PK mixed $26, MF 5x5 $29, AP 4x4 $32). If all goes well, by the end of today we will be looking at the following bids for this season:

PK mixed $25, MF 5x5 $27, AP 4x4 $29

Which seems to say that I once again am the biggest fan among the three of us of David Ortiz. But does it?

I'm curious what people will say. Whether or not anyone says anything, I'll weigh in tomorrow with my answer.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 17 '09
Derek Jeter New York Yankees
Wow toshiro, you made me well up. I'm feeling sorry for Derek Jeter!

My earlier question was about why everyone seemed to love Jeter, though I can't think of any reason except he came up in the Yankee system (while George was banned for life) and his teams won four World Series in five years.

Since then, not so much. And not insignificantly because he's a bad shortstop.

The stats matter because winning requires helpful players. The beauty for the Yankees is they can pay Jeter (who gets on base for sure) as if he were Hanley Ramirez, even if he isn't. And still invest in the rest of their squad.

It doesn't mean that Jeter will be as helpful as he is paid.

And they need a general manager who can handle their special situation. The guy they have now is clueless.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 16 '09
Alex Rodriguez New York Yankees
My surprising, to me, opinion, is that A-Rod thinks too much and really does sort of suck in the clutch. But he's so good it doesn't really matter most of the time. Especially for roto, where empty RBI count just like the meaningful ones.

But this year is different. It's kind of like he was dating Madonna and she found out he was popping Cialis. And she felt a little dissed. Does that make his next romantic encounter less fraught?

Given his age, contract security, emotional fragility and history, I wouldn't pay him like I would have in the past. In the Projector, which Alex seems to think is worthless, he's still the best player in baseball. But I would let him drop to me this year. Or let someone else take the best player and lose, as has happened each year of A-Rod's career.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 16 '09
Cole Hamels Atlanta Braves
Thanks MikeG. I've read many of your words and don't think they're wasted at all. But have to fist pump that one, even though I'm going to hustle up the line all the same.

badgermania, who was sounding a little like Ron himself until he dissed the Total Control drafting (where should we have a discussion of that?), may be right. But I'd like to see some data. In this year's projections, right now, I've chosen Carlos Zambrano as the guy who breaks down. So he's projected for 165 innings. My cue was last September's stumbles, and the workload he's shouldered so far. Clearly he's a guy who has handled it in the past, but that isn't a guarantee of future health.

To bring this back to Hamels, his minor league injury history was a red flag. Now it's a white flag. I give up. He's sure to get hurt at some point, but it no longer has anything to do with the history. And there is some basis (at least anecdotal) for believing that guys who pitch fewer innings when they are in their early 20s have more endurance later.

I'm pretty sure that has not been proved, but it worked for Nolan Ryan!
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 16 '09
Three years older than Jamie Moyer, and still more wear and tear on the arm.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 16 '09
The software and new data product is for sale. You can go to www.askrotoman.com/patton/index.php for all the details, which will save some of you money.

I'm not sure why Alex is going on about not needing the projector, but maybe that's because it is my input here. Apart from an errant Cliff Lee win total the projections are in pretty decent shape. Or you may not think so, which will help make them better.

Thanks for your feedback.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 16 '09
He wants some team to give him "just 15 minutes" so he can show that he can still pitch.

Can we get some bid limits here, please?!
Gary Cruciani Megary
Feb 16 '09
Cole Hamels Atlanta Braves
Damn it, Rotoman, I've probably wasted 100,000 words or more talking about Rotiserrie at my blog, and you just aptly summed it up in 317.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 15 '09
Manny Parra Chicago Cubs
69 K in 82 IP in the second half.
78 in 99 IP before the break, so I don't see any kind of big jump.

K/BB ratio did improve though.

As a Brewer fan, I will tell you the kid can pitch. He just hasn't put it together yet. His control is spotty and he he is so inconsistent.

If you can get him for $3, he is a great risk for a breakout.
paul schneider badgermania
Feb 15 '09
Cole Hamels Atlanta Braves
I am not saying to not spend money on pitching. As most of my league has gone towards LIMA type plans, spending money on pitching is the reason I have won my league the last two years. Hamels was a key part of both of those teams.

My point is not that you shouldn't spend money on pitching, but you have to be smart about it. My experience is that hitting emphasized leagues still spend elite dollar on the handful of elite pitchers (Johann, Maddux in his prime, etc.) I think the value can be had in that $10-$20 range, which is where I have picked up guys like Hamels, Lilly, Wandy Rodriguez (or Harang and Cain the year before).

You are still at risk with pitching, but you can balance that risk with the money investment. Hamels has top notch skills and everyone knows it, and that means that he may cross that line where the investment isn't worth it.

If I am going to spend $25 or $30, I would rather put my money into someone like Brandon Webb who has been more stable in his workload or $15 on Derek Lowe, giving me $15 to put somewhere else.

I value every dollar and balance the risk-reward for each of those dollars. Strategies like Shandler's "Total Control Drafting" (basically spending whatever you need to spend to get the guys you want) is a flawed system IMO because it doesn't value every dollar, thereby limiting your buying power later on.

As I said, I would LOVE to have Hamels on my staff again, but at MY price that justifies the risk. If I am going to spend $36 on a pitcher, it isn't going to be for a guy who just cracked 185 innings for the first time ever by pitching 260 innings at age 24. That is a huge red flag for $36.
paul schneider badgermania
Feb 15 '09
Alex Rodriguez New York Yankees
I think Alex is the most interesting of the steriod era guys. His output and prices don't seem, as much as Barry's or Sammy's or dare I say Brady's, to be as heavily infected. I wonder if he is just so insecure that he never really committed to the steriod program all the way. Mostly am interested because my ersatz mixed league no keepers has folded after running since 1982, and I am back in a competitive AL only league. Alex is available to freeze (cost of a reserve pick) at 49 (my keepers are Liriano, 10, Beckett, 18, Napoli, 2, Ellsbury, 7 and Ryan, 9. Doubt he will earn 49 but unless he completely gets buried with this mess, am thinking he is safe bet to earn near 40. thoughts?
Noah Hirsch NSH
Feb 15 '09

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