Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Cole Hamels Atlanta Braves
Cole Hamels was the first player purchased by Patton & Co. in the 2009 CBS Sportsline NL Expert League. The price is a secret...for now.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 11 '09
Roberto Alomar Toronto Blue Jays
I am hearing that Alomar was asked to take an HIV test in '04 or '05 and he refused, which is why he retired.

John Hirshbeck is not happy today.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 11 '09
Ultimately, this topic of conversation comes down to the difference between formulaic analysis and the reality of the auction. I do not mean that in any condescending or critical way; what I mean is that they are two different yet interrelated universes.

Aviles is a good example. I agree with Rotoman: I do not want to pay $16 for Mike Aviles (that K/W is a little scary). I agree with Mike, however, that I do not want to pay $3 for scrubbeenies. So what the hell Toz? What do we do?

Ultimately, there is an element of fantasy that the software and related forumlas do not really account for: the position scarcity argument. Now we can debate all day whether position scarcity is a reality or a falsity, but, when push comes to shove in the NL expert auction, there are a ton of 1B and a ton of OF, but very few of everything else. You HAVE to spend your money...the slotting really doesn't change much; it is more the players that fit the slots that change.

If you don't like Mike Aviles, that is all well and good, but you have to spend your money in the middle somewhere. What if you swing and whiff on Jeter, Young, Lowrie, et al.? Do you walk away from the table with $15 in your pocket, or do you pay your adjusted par value and throw up a little in your mouth while you take Aviles' stats over John McDonald's. In my opinion, you can always brush your teeth later.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 11 '09
Manny Ramirez Boston Red Sox
Correct me if I'm wrong Rotoman, but I think that Manny's on your cover because he earned more in Roto last year based on your prices than any other player.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 11 '09
Rotoman, what were you thinking, ManRam on the cover? He is either the emblem for much that is wrong with modern ballplayers (see, ARod et.al., and inability to play it straight even after being caught), or in some perverse way reminding us roto players that all we care about are the numbers, behavior, truth, be damned.
Noah Hirsch NSH
Feb 11 '09
Bobby Abreu Philadelphia Phillies
Abreu to LAA. Awesome signing for the Angels. Unbelievable that no team would go more.
Tom Ryan toshiro
Feb 11 '09
The other thing I'll point out is that in Rotoman's Guide it says Aviles earned $11 in 2008. That $8 gap between that and what you see here in the $ column is significant.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 11 '09
Roberto Alomar Toronto Blue Jays
Story in the NY Daily News reports that Roberto Alomar's girlfriend is suing him over allegedly having unprotected sex with her knowing he had AIDS.

If true, it's a sad story for everyone involved. Alomar was a truly outstanding player for many years. His career feel off the table in 2002 when he went to the Mets. I'm not in any way trying to suggest that the disease and his career path have anything in common.

If he did contract AIDS it's especially sad because he came up with the Padres, who had lost Alan Wiggins to AIDS at the very same position Alomar played.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 11 '09
I'll parrot what Alex has said all of these years. If you don't like Aviles, put your bid at $10 and watch him sail past. Just make sure that you put enough money somewhere else so that you don't wind up with $30 burning a hole in your pocket at the end of the auction. And I agree that you don't want to overpay Mike Aviles because there are no SS out there, but you also don't want to cheat all of the middle infielders and wind up with Donnie Murphy, John McDonald, and the ghost of Mark Lemke at a combined $3 because all of the MI are bums.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 11 '09
Mike Pelfrey Detroit Tigers
The development of pitchers is pretty closely tied to their walk rate, their strikeout rate, and their home run rate. These same factors almost always best describe a pitcher's year. Pelfrey's problem is that he has always walked a bunch of guys. His virtue is that he kept the ball on the ground.

Last year he walked fewer, which helped. He doesn't allow homers, which helps. But he's hittable, which is the price you pay for being in the strike zone. Since he isn't a big strikeout guy he's devalued in 5x5, and prognosticators believe that luck will catch up with whatever success he's had.

That's what I know. On the other hand he's had major league success at a good age. He was considered a prospect, and he's still young enough.

I'm not going crazy over the guy, but he's coming off a nice year and there is some chance it wasn't a fluke. That's not something to pay for, but it's something to look at if no one else pays for it.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 10 '09
Ryan Howard Philadelphia Phillies
Let me chime that I pointed out the Ryan Howard/A Rod age thing years go.And it matters.

Rob may have discovered it on his own, but the point is that Pujols became a star as a kid and Howard was a late bloomer.

The prognosis is that Pujols will have a long gradual decline. Howard will faceplant at some point. Probably.

That certainly isn't a reason to bail now, but it's a reason to be careful.

That's all.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 10 '09
Oliver Perez Cleveland Indians
Just to draw a line in the ether, the price posted on this date are last year's prices. We're looking forward to changing them, and regret what a pain it is for us to do so (which is why it hasn't happened yet).

But change is coming soon.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 10 '09
Mike Gonzalez Washington Nationals
The question, at this point, is what to do with guys with undecided roles. The Atlanta closer could be Gonzalez, but he's a lefty, could be Soriano, but we won't know how healthy he is until March 20th, and even then can't trust he's going to endure.

Apart from this observation, I have no advice. In the prices that appear here before Spring Training starts, you'll find the first take. But for all of us it is a dance that doesn't stop until April 5th (or our bunions bring us down).

DISCLOSURE: In the XFL auction in November I added Gonzalez for a buck in the endgame, because I think there is a chance he'll get and hold the job. That's a good use of the endgame, I think.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 10 '09
Eric Byrnes Seattle Mariners
Obviously not a bellwether, and in some ways a sleeper, since no one cares. But he was hurt last year, which was a disaster for him and for idiots who traded for him in June. In Tout Wars. NL-only.

He's old for a speedster, a late bloomer, but incredibly productive when he's healthy (or was when he was 31). He's also almost a power hitter, which takes the corrosion off the age thing.

I think Alex is making the right move.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 10 '09
Ryan Dempster Boston Red Sox
As a Cubs fan you can't be too pessimistic. But your namesake would bid Ryan up to $18 at least. There are all sorts of reasons to be concerned, but he had an excellent season and he's proven himself as a good pitcher over the years, when he's healthy. Wariness is a virtue, but when others hesitate you should jump.

Dempster may provide just such an opportunity. Or some idiot may take him past $30. Youneverknow.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 10 '09
Bobby Abreu Philadelphia Phillies
I'm with you, Ernie. Abreu is a way better signing, assuming the numbers aren't ridiculous, than Bradley. We don't know what he's asking, however, so the numbers could be ridiculous. Just not Manny ridiculous.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 10 '09
Excuse me, Alex, but you pulled my ringing Dustin Pedroia endorsement from last year's comments and ran it in the Patton and Co. ad this year. And my diss of Laynce Nix in last year's Guide couldn't have been more withering. So history and conformism are not aligned against me.

Position scarcity is a good reason to go after proven talents, not pay up mediocre or risky ones. (That said, Aviles has some pop, a little speed, and most importantly is playing for a team that ran the worst hitter in baseball out there for years, so while I wouldn't pay $9, you've convinced me $12 isn't madness. But $16?!?! No!)

By the way, rereading my Shortstop capsule in the Guide I see that I failed to point out the difference between the leagues. All the stars are in the NL. All the up and comers are in the NL (unless you count Aviles there, he says, keeping this on topic). It's actually pretty amazing, and not a reason to pay Aviles $16.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 10 '09
Bobby Abreu Philadelphia Phillies
I agree with putting neither Rice nor Abreu in the hall of fame, however why not put Abreu in a Cubs uniform this year. Why Milton Bradley instead? Steve Stone had me convinced one night (listening to the radio) that Abreu was the man for the Cubs, but it didn't happen.
Paul  Nordstrom ErnieBanks
Feb 10 '09
Manny Ramirez Boston Red Sox
Thank you for the escort back to reality.
That 53 game ride he took me on last year which moved me up about 4 places in our league race was so sweet, but it' certainly not likely to happen again. My league's prices tend to run a little high also, so a $32 top is probably more realistic.
Paul  Nordstrom ErnieBanks
Feb 10 '09
Mark Mulder St. Louis Cardinals
$8 is a pretty solid bid, it really comes down to how healthy he is. A sub 5 ERA and sub 13 Ratio would have to be considered to be a success given his recent injury history.
Matt Tucker spaminator
Feb 10 '09

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