Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Josh Hamilton Texas Rangers
Obviously, I'm planning to bid higher than Peter. But, in fact, I think he'll go for more than $20, and that's fine by me.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 23 '07
Pete Rose Cincinnati Reds
I have a rep as a liberal on PEDs, but it's more an idea that these things don't happen in a vacuum. And it seems like the smart idea is to avoid some sort of witch hunt.

Rose signed a document that said if he bet on baseball games he would be banned from the game for life. Or forever, or something like that. Which part didn't he understand?

Steroid users, as Alex is delighted to point out, are using every toy in the bag to get over, to succeed, and he's probably right that a lot of them would prefer not to have that pressure.

That, it seems to me, is a good reason to get all specific and technical about what happens if a player breaks the PEDs rules. And, by the way, what constitutes breaking the rules.

The beauty of Judge Landis's hard-assed stance against gambling is that there is no middle ground (apart from owning race horses). I think that same hardness is right on the steroid issue (assuming they are bad for your health), and I can't imagine why the players wouldn't want it to be so, as long as they are protected from false positives for PEDs.

Having said that, I was pitched at a party last night that Shoeless Joe should be in the Hall. But that's a topic for elsewhere.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 23 '07
Chris Young San Diego Padres
My rule of thumb in a dump trade is that you have to get equal value for the player you're surrendering plus at least a second player.

I did a review of this on my blog, and found that in the N.L. I looked at Jake Peavy was the only Top 10 N.L. pitcher bought by a second division team. That team did finish 12th out of 12 teams, so flipping Young for Peavy plus something else would have made sense.

It is telling that winners typically wind up with the best pitchers right out of the gate. That's because one 200 IP top 10 starter has far more impact on a team's 1200 IP than one 600 AB hitter has on an eventual winner's 7000 AB. And, if you don't have one of these pitchers, owners are too savvy in Stage Three simply to trade you one in an straight, non-dump deal.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 23 '07
Carlos Delgado New York Mets
Uniformly grim bids here. I think we all see decreased bat speed. I think he made some adjustments in the second half (a good thing, after hitting .223 in the first) and can return to more or less his 2004 level. But if he's going to end up with a repeat of last year's stats, I sure wouldn't be happy about spending $16 for them.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 23 '07
Nick Markakis Atlanta Braves
Here's a case where I don't quarrel with Peter's bid -- prices are stretched out in mixed leagues; to "overpay" for A-Rod you have to "underpay" for Markakis -- but I do quarrel with Mike's. What's not to like in 5x5? Markakis hit .320 in the second half. Knocked in 69 runs. Scored 55. It's true he didn't really get going until the middle of August, so you could say all he really did was have a six-week hot streak.

And you may prove to be right. But if you let somebody else have him in an AL-only league for $22, I'm quite sure you'll regret it.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 23 '07
Gary Bennett Los Angeles Dodgers
Admitting to the Washington Post that he took HGH:

"Quite frankly, I wasn't playing very well. I was horrible offensively. Defensively, it was a struggle to move around behind the plate. So I wrestled with it for about a month. And I finally decided, 'I'm going to try it.'"
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Yes, scratch the "very." I was getting a little carried away there. But for now I'm going to leave my bid limit at $6, because that's how much I like catchers who don't catch. Who are good hitters.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Carlos Pena Texas Rangers
Which is more shocking? That he had the third highest OPS in the first half (behind Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez)? Or the SECOND highest in the second half (behind David Ortiz)?

Did the ALL CAPS give it away?

He always had plate discipline. He always had a quick and powerful swing. But like some other hitters (Jose Cruz comes to mind), he seemed to go into stretches where he simply couldn't read the pitches at all.

Amazingly, the computers at Baseball Info Solutions (aka The Bill James Handbook 2008) give Pena an xBA of .315 for last year; I don't know how they figure that.

He still K's (and backward K's) far too often. It won't be a shock if 2008 finds him right around his career batting average. But the long flies will keep on coming.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Magglio Ordonez Detroit Tigers
Hit .429 with runners in scoring position. A Rogers Hornsby number.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Felix Hernandez Seattle Mariners
His average fastball was clocked at 95.6 mph, fastest in the majors (minimum 162 IP). But on the list of Highest % Fastballs (in the Bill James Handbook 2008) King Felix is nowhere to be found. He ranks eighth on the list of Highest % Sliders.

What do I know looking over stats in the middle of winter? But I suspect it's not the best way to handle a still very young pitcher.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Chris Young San Diego Padres
It's hard to imagine any first-place team trading Chris Young to a last-place team in the middle of the season last year. What could you possibly get in a fire sale that would be better than Chris Young?

It's kind of painful to think how many teams that were in first at the All Star break because of Chris Young fell out of first thanks to his second-half collapse.

But even after winning all of two games and compiling a 4.28 ERA in the second half, Young finished first in the league in Opposition OPS, edging out Jake Peavy.

It was quite a battle, with Young finishing ahead of Peavy in Opponent BA, second to Peavy in Opponent OBP and ahead of Peavy in Opponent SLG.

Young was the most extreme flyball pitcher in the National League last year, by a wide margin. GB/FB ratio 0.58, next 0.76 (Oliver Perez). Makes finishing first in Opponent SLG all the more of an accomplishment.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Greg Maddux Los Angeles Dodgers
In the back of the Bill James Handbook 2008 are dozens of great lists. They become even more fascinating when seemingly disparate lists -- or lists that would seem to have different membership -- are compared.

For example, if you had the fourth Slowest Average Fastball in the National League last year, how often would you actually throw it?

Greg Maddux threw his not-so-hot heater 69.9 percent of the time. Only Aaron Cook, Dontrelle Willis, Chris Young, Brandon Webb and Brad Penny threw a higher percentage of fastballs. Only Jamie Moyer, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Doug Davis and Barry Zito had slower average fastballs.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
John Smoltz Atlanta Braves
On further investigation...

Smoltz was fifth in the league in Lowest % Fastballs. Behind Jamie Moyer, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg and Bronson Arroyo. Ahead of Matt Morris and Tom Glavine.

Four of these other pitchers (Moyer, Davis, Morris and Glavine) ranked in the top 10 in Slowest Average Fastball. So for them discretion in the number of fastballs was the highest form of valor.

Smoltz, it seems, was a save-your-bullets type.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Fourth in the league in Fastest Average Fastball last year. Can you believe that?

Ahead of him: Brad Penny, Matt Cain, Rou Oswalt. Behind him (by decimals): Jake Peavy.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
I'm sure you're right. Are the DOBs off for other old-timers?
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Derek Lowe Texas Rangers
According to the Rating, Lowe didn't pitch quite as effectively last year, and sure enough, his ERA was a little higher. But in fewer IP he recorded more K's, which gets the attention not just in 5x5 leagues. He gave up fewer hits per IP. A few more fly balls became Big Flies, but -- who knows? -- maybe he had bad luck with the weather. For sure, when the league ERA is 4.43 and your ERA is more than half a run better, you don't deserve a losing record.

That's the main point I'm trying to make.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
I use Firefox, too.

$43. HR $4, RBI $6, SB $32, BA $1.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 22 '07
Wasn't Babe Ruth born in 1895?
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 22 '07
Hanley Ramirez Cleveland Indians
Rick Wilton, the injury guru at BaseballHQ.com, writes: "The Marlins do not believe Ramirez will be close to 100% in spring training."

Some sort of nonsense about "surgery after the season to repair damage to his non-throwing shoulder."

Hanley, Hanley... non-throwing shoulder? Must be some meds you can legally take, starting right now.

Rotoman and I have him in the 15-team mixed-league XFL. That's a tall pyramid to climb and you can't do it without at least one Hanley Ramirez going at full-tilt.


Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07
Ichiro Suzuki Seattle Mariners
According to the Baseball Forecaster, Ichiro's "expected batting average" was a mere .286.

But don't panic, Ichiro owners, his xBA in 2006 was .285.

You'll certainly be satisfied if he hits .322 this year. Won't you?

Answer: Yep. Especially if he steals 45 bases.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 22 '07

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