Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Jeremy Accardo Washington Nationals
It would be good to be able to enter "reexamine dates" for guys like this. So users could check the schedule and see what updates are of interest. Accardo could be great, but he could also be pushed aside come March 15. When I wrote my comment on Dec 27 I thought it would be good to have a way to express that more directly.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Except for the month I owned him (late May to late June) he was awfully good. The good news for me was that even thought he got pounded he saved plenty of games, but I suspect no one else cares about that. What everyone cares about is BJ Ryan. If he's healthy enough to pitch, Accardo will be the set up guy. Follow this situation come spring.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Scott Baker Los Angeles Dodgers
I like the slotting Mike G suggests as a guideline to see if bid limits are realistic. He is right that Baker is probably going to go for $8 in AL Leagues, and if that happens I think I might be the guy getting him. But that's a risky play.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Dana Eveland Atlanta Braves
It's too soon to dub him Quad-A, though that doesn't mean he won't earn the appellation later. He's learning, and it isn't unreasonable that he may someday learn enough (or not). He's got close to enough stuff.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 28 '07
Josh Beckett Los Angeles Dodgers
There you go -- maybe a variant of our game would be to, in essence, have two sets of hitting categories, with the "worst" the best on the pitchers' side. Then we'd have to come up with denominators in order to determine pitching values, but it seems like it might be easier than the ERA and ratio calculations . . .
mike fenger mike
Dec 28 '07
Thanks to John Dewan's free Stat of the Week, which just arrived via email, I've shown Josh Beckett's career (minus four starts in 2001) in the previous post, viewed from the point of view of opposing batters.

The first thing to notice, as Dewan points out, is Beckett's amazing consistency. How many hitters have shown such minimal fluctuation in batting average during their first six seasons?

The second thing that stands out is that a pitcher who pitches more than 200 innings faces opposing hitters far more often than any hitter faces opposing pitchers.

Aren't pitchers essentially hitters in reverse? (The only real difference being that pitchers work a lot harder in each at-bat.) Can't it be argued that a hitter who batted .245, got on base barely more than 28 percent of the time, and slugged a puny .377 in 772 AB hurt a team's offense last year even more than the mightiest hitter -- which would be A-Rod in 583 AB -- boosted it?

Nonetheless, because so many sportswriters refuse to even consider pitchers when they make out their ballots, it's unlikely we will ever again see a pitcher win the MVP award.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 28 '07
Record of Opposing Batters
Season AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Avg OBP Slg OPS
2002 401  56  93 14  5 13  52 44 113 12  5 .232 .308 .389 .697
2003 537  54 132 26  2  9  44 56 152  5  5 .246 .317 .352 .669
2004 582  72 137 32  5 16  67 54 152  5  5 .235 .300 .390 .690
2005 654  75 153 34  6 14  63 58 166  6  7 .234 .296 .369 .665
2006 780 120 191 44  4 36 109 74 158 15  1 .245 .310 .450 .760
2007 772  76 189 45  3 17  72 40 194 14  6 .245 .282 .377 .659

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 27 '07
Dana Eveland Atlanta Braves
Still young enough to prove me wrong, but my impression is that he's a AAAA pitcher; he just doesn't have enough stuff to get major-leaguers out the way he gets AAA hitters out. His ERA in the minors has been under 3.00 at every single stop, but you can see what a disaster it's been in the majors. Even the dollar assumes he pitches well enough in the spring to get a rotation slot.
mike fenger mike
Dec 27 '07
Dustin McGowan Philadelphia Phillies
I think what we're both saying is that, Stage 3 being Stage 3, that there's no way McGowan goes for anything under $15 and, in some leagues, he might crack $20.

Glad I've got him locked in for $10...
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 27 '07
Dana Eveland Atlanta Braves
And now he's an Oakland A.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 27 '07
Adam Loewen Toronto Blue Jays
One conundrum Mike Fenger and I discussed that has never been resolved was how to set bid limits for guys like Loewen in freeze leagues. He's already a $2-3 pitcher in freeze leagues, since he's a nice lottery ticket for 2009 even if he doesn't throw a pitch in 2008.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 27 '07
Dana Eveland Atlanta Braves
In 61 IP in the Mexican Pacific League this winter, 54 H, 15 BB, 69 SO.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 27 '07
Mark Prior Cincinnati Reds
October 2003. Cubs leading 3-0 in the 8th inning of the sixth game of the NLCS. At home. One more win against the Marlins and it's on to the World Series. Mark Prior on the mound.

What a bummer it's been since.

Cubs figured his career stat line would be worth about $3.5 million in arbitration, and they were right. So now he will play for the Padres this year: $1 million guaranteed, another $2 milllion in incentives. The biggest incentive being, at Prior's insistence, there's no option for 2009. All 30 teams will be able to bid on him.

Let's hope a bunch of them do.





Alex Patton Alex
Dec 27 '07
Kameron Loe Atlanta Braves
His 9 Quality Starts were no match for his 14 other ones. Had his elbow scoped in September. If his sinker's sinking in March, he just might be back in the Rangers' rotation come April.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 27 '07
Adam Loewen Toronto Blue Jays
No soft tossing lefty he. At least not before he blew out his elbow. He is expected to be ready at the start of spring training and at the end the bid will be changed to No Bid or $5, minimum.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 27 '07
Dustin McGowan Philadelphia Phillies
I agree. Only thing not to like about McGowan is the salary he's going to command in leagues where he's not under contract. WHIP is much better than his ERA and his Rating is much better than his WHIP. Bill James Handbook puts his Component ERA at 3.06.

And that was last year.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 27 '07
Mark Mulder St. Louis Cardinals
Back under the knife in September to "clean up unhealed portion of his rotator cuff." Cardinals think he'll be ready by spring training.
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 27 '07
Dustin McGowan Philadelphia Phillies
Nasty, nasty stuff. The 3.67 ERA Post All-Star hides the .217 BAA and 7.99 K/9 in the same span. I seldom like the idea of bidding more for a pitcher than what he earned the year before, but the arrow is pointing way up on McGowan.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 27 '07
Casey Kotchman Florida Marlins
If you believe in Kotchman, raise the bid to $18. First base was a notoriously weak position last year, with only two hitters - Carlos Pena and Justin Morneau - cracking the $20 barrier.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 27 '07
Scott Baker Los Angeles Dodgers
I'm not suggesting Baker's turnaround was necessarily authentic. I'm saying that if you want to take the ride, you're going to have to pay at least $8, and even that might not get him. He was the 33rd best starter in A.L. 4x4 in 2007, and the 33rd best starter in AP bid limits in 2007 was worth an $8 bid.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Dec 27 '07

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