Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Paul Byrd Boston Red Sox
Everything is old school throwback about this guy except the steroid allegations.
John Brand JohnB
Jan 21 '08
Johan Santana Baltimore Orioles
Will be interesting to see where he ends up. As a Red Sox or Yankee he'd get bid WAY up in my league.
John Brand JohnB
Jan 21 '08
Cole Hamels Chicago Cubs
Admittedly, I am a Phillies fan, and I see anywhere from 6-16 games live and most of the rest on television. I watch a lot of baseball, and Hamels last year looked like the ace the organization hoped he would be. 51 more innings, but only 46 more hits, many less walks and the HR rate isn't all that bad. With less walks, the HR really didn't impact his ERA.

On top of the golden arm and effortless motion, he has a great poise, and CBP doesn't seem to phase him at all. In fact, in 142 career innings at home, he has a 3.54 ERA and a .228 BA against at CBP. Last year, in 83 innings at home, that ERA was just north of 3.20.

$21 is too light for a staff ace on a good team. You won't even come close to him at that price.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
Jeremy Accardo Washington Nationals
I've been hearing 'midseason' as the return date for BJRyan, which leaves plenty of value for Accardo. Who knows what BJ will have when he comes back?
John Brand JohnB
Jan 21 '08
Chase Utley Los Angeles Dodgers
The biggest worry about Utley is that he'll wear himself down at the end of the year (again) with his style of play. On the other hand, if he holds that OBP, $33 is very light for him at 2B. At 29, looking at what he did in missing about 100 AB, I'm looking to pay a non-inflation $37 at a minimum for a line that likely will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 28/115/15/.325.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
Jimmy Rollins San Francisco Giants
I do not necessarily dispute that Rollins may have had his career year last year. Nonetheless, keep in mind that he is baseball age 29 and coming off three successive years of 30+ earnings before breaking out for $43 last year. Given relatively the same case of characters in the top half of the lineup, I see no reason to believe that Rollins, particularly in 4x4, isn't in a position to nearly duplicate last year's numbers. And if some of those triples (which I believe are the biggest anomoly in his numbers) translate to homers, that is going to be one heck of a line. If I'm drafting, I'm closer to the original $39, and I likely would say $40.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
Manny Ramirez Boston Red Sox
Keep in mind, Eugene, that the 5x5 values are Mike Fenger and Alex's bid limits. I'd assume that they're still not adding up to $3120, and that is the kind of polishing that's going to happen in the software, not here in the profiles.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Alex Rodriguez New York Yankees
http://rotothinktank.blogspot.com/2007/11/2007-al-hitters.html

Not sure if the link will show up, Eugene, but I've been writing about this stuff at my blog (incorporating Alex's stellar pricing theory, of course) for over a year now.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Rich Harden Oakland Athletics
Just like Prior in the NL, such a shame he can't stay healthy, and there is no reason to think he will in 2008. The A's are rebuilding this year, and they will be very cautious with him. If you are in a keeper league and rebuilding, he is worth grabbing cheap and stashing away in the hopes he will be healthy at some point in the future. Other than that, I would stay away...far away.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 20 '08
Mark Mulder St. Louis Cardinals
You can probably get him for a buck or two in the end game based on his last two years, and I think he would be worth the flier. His rotator cuff was apparently not completely healed after his surgery in 2006, and all reports say he should be ready for spring traning after his second surgery. If he remains healthy, he could be a nice surprise if you grab him cheap. Just remember to have a very short leash if he struggles in April.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 20 '08
Mark Kotsay San Diego Padres
Clearly a safer option than Josh Anderson, but the Braves cannot be excited about going into 2008 with Kotsay as their center fielder. His games played have dropped in each of the last 3 seasons, and his back problems have been well documented. I think the bid at $9 is where it should be, but I would not be surprised if Anderson (who has averaged 51 SB's in his last 4 ML seasons) outearns Kotsay this year.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 20 '08
Aaron Rowand Florida Marlins
I agree with Toz's analysis. I am going to freeze him at $17 in my NL 4x4, but I am not expecting a big ROI. I just hope his all-out style of play does not limit him to under 145 games, and he puts up numbers more like 2005 than 2006.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 20 '08
Rich Harden Oakland Athletics
Look at it from this perspective - he has a fresh arm, considering he's barely used it in the last 5 years.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 20 '08
Aaron Rowand Florida Marlins
Here's the question of the day, and the question of your draft: which Aaron Roward shows up in SF? Is it the 2004 and 2007 versions, or the 2005 and 2006 versions? I'm going to hedge my bets and say we'll see something in the middle; this is going to look a little bit like Luis Gonzalez from the mid-90s with the Tigers I think - 15/75/10 .270. Not worth $20, but, frankly, you won't get him for less in a 4x4.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 20 '08
Joba Chamberlain Cleveland Indians
If Chamberlain is in the pen, he may be the best set-up guy play. He is dominating in the 8th inning; take a look at the numbers. If Rivera goes down, he is the closer; count on at least 5 saves and 5 wins (minimum). If a starter goes down, he heads to the rotation; this is where he could lose value. We really don't know what we are going to get from him in the rotation. If he spends the year in the pen, however, I put the over-under on earnings at $20. The bid looks good for now - let's see how things play out in spring training and with the potential Santana trade in the mix.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 20 '08
John Mayberry Detroit Tigers
I saw him out in Arizona a couple times and he was less than impressive. He's a long guy with a long swing and he's no longer all that young, so I think the odds are really long that he'll ever make a major league impact.

The stats in the second row are mislabeled. They're from the Texas League (AA).
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 20 '08
Gerald Laird Arizona Diamondbacks
He had his bad year with the stick at the wrong time, but it's not a sure thing that he's going to be shunted aside by Jarrod Saltalamacchia out of spring training. And his defense should earn him some PT even if Salty is the putative starter. There will be much worse $1 choices at catcher this spring.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 20 '08
He slots in as the utility guy behind Eckstein and Hill. That could mean half as many at bats as he was used to in Oakland, but it also means he might help his team more.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 20 '08
Kurt Suzuki Washington Nationals
I'll take the over. How much are you willing to lay?

Suzuki's minor league numbers from thebaseballcube:
2004 A- .297/.394/.440 age 20
2005 A+ .277/.378/.440 age 21
2006 AA .285/.392/.415 age 22
2007 AAA .280/.351/.365 age 23

He should eventually be a .280 hitter at the ML level. Maybe not this year, but soon.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 20 '08
Rickie Weeks Tampa Bay Rays
I admit it. I had Weeks at a puny $14 before I read Joe Sheehan over at SI.com. Excerpts:

What do true breakout players look like? Well, a little like this...

Rickie Weeks: Weeks looked like he improved in 2006, but he actually took a big step forward last season. Consider that prior to '07 Weeks had drawn 68 walks and struck out 194 times in 841 career PAs. (All references to walks in this piece are to unintentional passes.) Both his plate discipline and power had been stable from '05 into '06, but a 40-point jump in BA made it look like improvement. Last year, however, Weeks walked more often, struck out less often and hit for more power than ever before...

Now that's the sunniest view of Weeks' season. What that doesn't show is that on Aug. 1 the Brewers sent Weeks, hitting .212/.330/.363 and not showing improvement defensively, to Triple-A for two weeks... Weeks was recalled nine days later, and was one of the best players in the NL down the stretch: .273/.442/.553, 38 walks drawn in 197 PA, 15 for 15 stealing bases.

... Weeks is 25 now and ready to be one of the best second baseman -- at least at the plate -- in the National League.

With any kind of spring training Rickie's going to shoot up past the $20 barrier. Those of us who go there (I might! I might!) are going to be placing an awful lot of emphasis on his wake-up call in Nashville, blowing off his 1,000 AB in the majors basically because he did.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 19 '08

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