Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Bobby Abreu Philadelphia Phillies
Well, the scan is always telling...$45, $38, $34, $28. Abreu appears to be in a decline. The power is down, the steals are dropping, the walks are down...all bad signs and all signs of a player on the decline. I would be wary of Abreu at $27. I'm thinking that a line similar to last year's numbers, with about 5 less SB. His days of well past 20 SB are likely over.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
Carl Crawford Los Angeles Dodgers
No one heard me say this, but I tend to agree with Slyke here. The trick pony with Crawford, as it is with many basestealers, is how long can he continue to keep up the average and the power with the wear and tear of stealing bases? Last year, Crawford didn't wear down at all and clearly seemed to recover from all the dings, hitting .355 post All-Star break. He doesn't like his home park as much as visiting parks generally speaking, but I don't think it hurts his value overall.

Crawford was bought last year at $50; I don't think that owner is going to keep him, but I can see Crawford pushing the mid to high $40s again. I think my non-inflation number is going to be about $42.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
Johan Santana Baltimore Orioles
I am currently sitting on Santana at $47 in a 4x4 with about 18% inflation last year (I haven't taken the time to calculate any potential inflation yet this year). I'm tempted to keep him even though he "killed" me down the stretch last year. Crazy to say, but he just didn't have that Santana zip down the stretch.

If he stays in the AL, there are a couple of scenarios. First, he starts the season with the Twins. This could be a fantasy "disaster," because he is not happy in Minnesota at the moment. Of course, last year was a "disaster," and the earnings are at $33. Scenario 2 - he goes to the Yankees. Good for them, and good for his win total. Scenario 3 - he goes to Boston...good for him, Boston and me...25 wins is not out of the realm of possibility and I keep him at $47.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
I tend to agree with Mike here (an unfortunate byproduct of entering comments on the most recent commented players). Buck's average is a little low at .222. Of course, that average is going to be a little low at .240 also.

I see a little more power potential, though his ABs are clearly going to remain limited. If he actually got 400-450 ABs, I think 25-30 HR is a real possibility. 18-20 is much more likely.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Jan 21 '08
I've been a John Buck rooter since wasting a reserve pick on him in LABR in 2003, but despite the BB/AB cresting slightly, he really isn't getting any better. The OBP isn't ever going to move much over .300, which means that he isn't going to ever break a .250 BA, which means that he's never going to be a high-impact Roto catcher.

That doesn't mean he's not worth owning. Batting average is a product of luck, and the scan makes me think that Buck was a little unlucky last year. A .240 BA with 20 HR isn't out of the question, but don't bet on it.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Scott Linebrink St. Louis Cardinals
If that $5 price holds in the software, you're looking at one of the more radical bids you'll ever see.

Unless the implication is that Jenks' 2007 was a mirage.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Brett Tomko New York Yankees
Signed a one-year, $3 million contract with the Royals today.

Pass.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Will miss the first 15 games of 2008 after violating MLB's drug program. That being said, has been a solid $20 earner of late with the exception of an injury plagued 2006. Probably will bat 6th in the KC lineup, so he should get plenty of RBI chances hitting behind Teahen, Butler and Gordon. Not a lot of HR's hit by KC players the last couple of years, so I expect the HR's to dip a bit. I think $16 is solid, and expect numbers like 2005 and 2007.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
The downside is that horrid BB/SO ratio in Texas. Like Slyke, I see the upside. But the downside is that Salty hits .200 with no power and gets shipped to AAA on May 15.

Don't rule out a move back to 1B either. Ben Broussard and Chris Shelton aren't all that much of an impediment if the Rangers decide they want to give Laird one last shot behind the dish.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Jon Garland Colorado Rockies
I'd stick with $8. Even though Garland is a relatively safe bet, his K/IP is always low, and his BABIP jumps all over the place every year. He could get lucky and earn $27 again, but he's more likely to earn somewhere between $7-13. Pay $8 and you're pretty likely to get a small profit plus the 200+ IP that Garland always delivers.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
I think this price actually might get him; there are a number of people out there who look at Shields and think he isn't for real. I agree with Slyke, think that that those K/IP and K/BB ratios aren't budging and that, at the very least, Shields is going to be a positive earner for the rest of his career, with a few more $20+ seasons sprinkled in. That might not be worth paying $20 for, but I would pay at least $17.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Dontrelle Willis Baltimore Orioles
You won't get Dontrelle for the 4x4 price, but Alex, once again, is on the money. This is why the scan is useful. Dontrelle has a reputation as a money pitcher, but the money column tells us, in fact, that he's only been that pitcher once in the last five years. Pay $12 and hope for 2003, deal with it if you get 2004 or 2006, and pray he doesn't re-live 2007.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Alex Gordon Kansas City Royals
The best prediction I can give you about Alex Gordon is that you're going to be seeing that $17 4x4 bid in an awful lot of publications and at an awful lot of web sites this spring. The range of earnings possibilities are anywhere from $10-25, but we all know what we want to pay for those possibilities.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Moves back to the American League, this time with the Detroit Tigers. If you like him, tick the bid limit up to $16. He's in his walk year, and the poor K/W ratio has always been a problem for him. I don't know why the power disappeared last year, but there's no reason he can't bounce back to his 2004-2005 levels. Bid accordingly.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 21 '08
Disappointing season for Overbay and his owners last year, but he should bounce back in 2008 now that he appears to be healthy heading into this year. I think the 4x4 bid at $17 is on mark. Savvy owners will try to get him on the cheap after his dismal 2007, but don't let him go for under $15.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Jon Garland Colorado Rockies
I like the move to Anaheim for Garland, and I think that will help his numbers this year. Has reached 200 IP in each of the last 4 years, and has cracked double digits in each of the last three years. Was having a solid first half until the knot in his shoulder flared up and he struggled in July and August. Throw out those two starts where he gave up 19 ER in 4 1/3 IP, and his ERA for the season would have been 3.49. I think he is a good bet to win 14-16 games with an ERA right around 4.00. I would go as high as $10, as I think the change in scenery (along with Hunter and Matthews in the OF) will make a big impact.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Casey Janssen San Diego Padres
If you got him at a buck in the end game last year, he turned a nice profit for you. Will set up Accardo until Ryan comes back and might get some save opportunities. Not an overpowering pitcher like a League, but he throws strikes and was very consistent last year. Seems to have found his niche in the pen and should contribute again in 2008. I like him at $1 or $2.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Great stuff. Don't be afraid of him pitching in that ballpark - he actually pitched slightly better at home than on the road last year. He is a workhorse and a top 10 pitcher in the NL. I would bid up to $25 for his services.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Carl Crawford Los Angeles Dodgers
I can't see him going for under $40 this year. Three strait $40 seasons...seems to be a safe bet he will earn at least $40 again.
Keith Cromer Slyke
Jan 21 '08
Jacoby Ellsbury New York Yankees
I'd love to see the projected at bats, steals and average on this guy. Based on the 4x4 price above am guessing 25 steals, 350 AB, .290 average.
John Brand JohnB
Jan 21 '08

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